AGP Executive Report

Power Crisis Escalation: Libya’s electricity shortages are worsening as heat hits 50°C, with protests in Tripoli districts (Janzour, Tajoura, Souq Al-Jumaa) after the grid reportedly lost about 1,350MW since mid-July; the High Council of State says the problem is now about management failures and calls for investigations into administrative, financial and technical causes. US Trade Pressure: Washington imposed a 12.5% tariff on Libyan imports under forced-labour enforcement rules, adding Libya to a list of 60 economies targeted after USTR said bans are not effectively enforced. Sanctions Enforcement: The UN Security Council Libya Committee added the vessel “Avax” to the sanctions list, banning oil-related loading, transport, unloading, port access and related financial transactions for one year. Oil & Investment Signals: Repsol reported stronger 1H2026 performance tied to higher production and said Libya awarded it two new exploration blocks in the first licensing round in nearly two decades. Development Ties: Libya’s South Development and Reconstruction Authority met China’s ambassador to expand infrastructure and investment cooperation, including southern projects. Aviation Link: Qatar Airways received approval to open a branch in Libya, a step toward resuming flights and boosting trade and logistics. Finance Market Move: Benghazi launched its first investment sukuk package worth over 1 billion Libyan dinars to channel liquidity into real-asset projects. Legal Ruling: A Pakistani court granted bail in a Libya boat-tragedy smuggling case, ruling that bank transfers alone don’t prove knowing involvement in a smuggling network.

Libya Electricity Crisis: Prolonged power outages sparked protests in Tripoli’s Janzour, Tajoura and Souq Al-Jumaa as the grid lost about 1,350MW amid gas/fuel shortages and technical/security failures; the High Council of State called for a full investigation into administrative, financial and technical mismanagement. Finance & Markets: Benghazi launched its first investment sukuk package worth over 1 billion Libyan dinars, aiming to mobilize local savings and fund real-asset projects. Trade & Diplomacy: Pakistan’s ambassador-designate said Pakistani workers in Libya fell 78% and pledged to double exports and raise the workforce to 40,000; Qatar Airways received approval to open a Libya branch to restart connectivity. US Tariffs Impacting Libya: The US imposed new 12.5% forced-labour tariffs on imports from Libya (among other African states) under Section 301, effective July 24. Business Climate & Energy: Libya’s NOC urged more investment to expand natural gas, while methane-cutting opportunities across Libya’s oil and gas sector were highlighted in a new regional report.

Electricity Crisis Accountability: Libya’s High Council of State says power outages are no longer “exceptional,” blaming the Government of National Unity for mismanaging the electricity file and calling for a full inquiry by oversight bodies and the Public Prosecutor into administrative, financial and technical failures, including suspected corruption. Load-Shedding Anger in Libya: Protesters in western cities and Tripoli-area districts denounced “double standards” in how cuts are distributed, with disruptions hitting daily life and even the Great Man-Made River water supply. US Forced-Labour Tariffs Hit Libya: The U.S. imposed new Section 301 tariffs (10% or 12.5%) on 60 economies over forced-labour enforcement failures; Libya is listed among the affected countries, raising compliance pressure for importers. Migration Pressure Linked to Libya Routes: A report says 1,429 Nigerians were repatriated from Niger in May 2026, with Niger still serving as a key transit corridor toward Europe via Libya and Algeria. Energy Transition Watch: A methane-reduction report finds big abatement potential in Libya’s oil and gas sector, but stresses that infrastructure, regulation and financing conditions will decide results. Libya-Tied Trade Cooperation: Libya and Turkey discussed cooperation on oversight and anti-corruption, alongside competition-policy talks and plans to strengthen trade and investment ties.

US Tariff Shock: The Trump administration’s forced-labour tariffs kick in on 60 economies, with rates of 10% for countries deemed to have strong bans and 12.5% for others; the list includes Libya at 12.5%, and the move covers about 99.4% of US imports. Libya Power Crisis: Libyans across east and west report hours-long daily outages and protest “double standards” in load shedding, with the Great Man-Made River hit as wells go out of service. Libya-Turkey Oversight: Libya’s Administrative Control Authority met Turkey’s ambassador to expand cooperation on anti-corruption, administrative oversight, and stalled projects involving Turkish firms. Energy Talks: Libya’s oil ministry discussed boosting output with TotalEnergies, including future expansion plans and introducing a new head for the company in Libya. Migration Pressure: IOM data says Libya’s migrant population has risen to 943,748, with most lacking residency and work permits and major gaps in healthcare and schooling access. Business & Finance: SLB posted Q2 2026 results, while Stone Wall Capital issued a regulatory and client-account procedures update.

US Tariff Shock: The US is rolling out new 10%–12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 economies, including Libya, accusing partners of not enforcing bans on goods made with forced labour; the duties start 12:01am Friday as earlier emergency levies expire, with rates varying by country and some product exemptions. Power Crisis Protest: In Libya, residents in the east and west are protesting unequal load shedding, saying “double standards” in power cuts are hitting cities differently and disrupting wells feeding the Great Man-Made River. Energy & Oil Watch: Libya’s oil ministry is in talks with TotalEnergies to boost output, while TotalEnergies reported $5.4bn Q2 net income as Middle East conflict lifted prices. Migration Pressure: IOM says Libya’s migrant population has climbed to 943,748 (nearly one million), with most lacking residency and work permits and facing major barriers to healthcare and schooling. Governance & Anti-Corruption: Libya’s Administrative Control Authority met Turkey to expand oversight, anti-corruption cooperation, and resolve issues around Turkish firms and stalled projects. Business & Investment: Libya’s NOC is reviewing plans to develop natural gas reserves, and Libya is set to spotlight upstream investment at LEES 2027.

Libya Energy & Investment: Libya will spotlight upstream investment at the Libya Energy & Economic Summit (LEES) 2027 with a new Upstream Hub in Tripoli (Jan 23–25), aiming to move from licensing to execution and lift crude output from ~1.4m bpd toward 1.6m bpd, with a long-term goal of 2m bpd. Oil & Gas Markets: TotalEnergies reported Q2 net profit of $5.4bn (up from $2.7bn) as Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher, while production losses tied to Hormuz access weighed on output. Trade Policy Shock: The Trump administration released a list of 85 countries/blocks facing new tariffs over alleged forced-labor enforcement failures, with duties set to replace earlier emergency tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court. Libya Business Diplomacy: Libya and Turkey agreed to deepen cooperation on competition policy, including anti-monopoly enforcement and merger oversight; Libya also discussed boosting trade and investment ties with Syria, with chambers signing an MoU. Construction & Industry: Italian firms confirmed participation in Libya Construction Expo 2026 (Tripoli, Nov 8–11), signaling renewed foreign interest in reconstruction and infrastructure. Regional Energy Risk: Romania warned of a potential fuel market crisis after Kazakhstan halted crude deliveries via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium system following Black Sea disruptions.

Libya Energy Strategy: Libya will put upstream investment at the center of its plans, launching an Upstream Hub at LEES 2027 in Tripoli to push exploration, production and technology deployment as the country moves from licensing into execution. NOC & Gas Focus: Libya’s National Oil Corporation renewed calls for bigger natural gas investment, highlighting its push to manage and develop the sector’s massive reserves and cut flaring. Power & Fuel Security: North Africa’s summer blackouts are hitting hard, with Libya’s grid disruption linked to a west-side transmission failure and a temporary restart via Egypt interconnection, while the wider region faces fuel and infrastructure strain. Oil Markets Watch: TotalEnergies reported Q2 net profit doubling to $5.4bn, citing higher oil prices tied to Middle East conflict, and pointed to ramp-ups including projects in Libya. Competition & Trade Links: Libya and Turkey agreed to deepen cooperation on competition policy, while Libya and Syria discussed boosting trade and investment, with chambers signing an MoU to expand economic ties. Construction & Investment Pipeline: Italian firms are set to participate in Libya Construction Expo 2026 through an official pavilion, aiming to attract reconstruction and infrastructure opportunities. Regional Engagement: Libya attended an ECOWAS summit in Sierra Leone to strengthen Africa-wide cooperation and integration. Business Dispute: A Libyan sovereign wealth fund-backed stake in South Africa’s Legacy Hotels will be repurchased at fair value after a Supreme Court of Appeal ruling, ending a long shareholder deadlock.

Libya Energy & Gas: Libya’s National Oil Corporation renewed its push for bigger investment in natural gas, citing the need to meet rising domestic demand and cut flaring while turning Libya’s estimated 53 trillion cubic feet of reserves into proven supply. Power & Infrastructure: North Africa’s heat-driven power blackouts hit Libya hard, with outages tied to a west-side transmission failure and a temporary restart supported by cross-border electricity interconnection with Egypt. Digital Economy Risk: A new resilience study flags Libya as the most vulnerable country to major internet disruption, warning that weak electricity coverage and reliance on a single internet exchange point could disrupt banking, healthcare, border control and government services. Skills & AI Training: The GNU signed an agreement with Samsung Innovation Campus to train 150 Libyans in digital and AI skills from Aug 11 to Oct 6, delivered via virtual live sessions plus self-paced learning. Business & Trade Links: Libya is moving to deepen financial ties with China’s CIPS payment system to reduce dollar dependence, while Libya’s upstream strategy is set to feature an Upstream Hub at LEES 2027 to accelerate exploration and production growth. Sports & Investment: Libya’s football reform push includes a proposed “Supreme Body” and national sports academy, and Libya also signals interest in hosting AFCON 2028 as CAF opens the bidding process. Security & Justice: The ICC confirmed charges against Libyan Khaled El Hishri over alleged crimes at Mitiga prison, a case that could expose wider abuse networks affecting detainees, migrants and refugees.

Libya’s Credit Rating Milestone: SANAD Credit Rating Agency (SCRA) has become Libya’s first licensed domestic credit rating firm, issuing its first ratings covering all 27 major banks—aimed at cutting the “frontier premium” lenders charge when local risk analysis is missing. Energy & Investment Focus: NOC held a workshop on natural gas development, citing Libya’s estimated 53 trillion cubic feet of reserves and pushing partnerships to expand domestic supply and exports while cutting flaring. Oil Sector Cooperation: AGOCO and NOC discussed next steps with Chevron to boost oil field output and operational efficiency using international know-how. Digital Skills Push: GNU signed an agreement with Samsung Innovation Campus to train 150 Libyans (Aug 11–Oct 6, 2026) in AI and digital skills. Business Climate & Security: Libya’s British Embassy hosted counterterrorism financing training for Libyan justice and financial investigators. Infrastructure Risk Alert: A new study flags weak internet and electricity resilience, ranking Libya as the world’s most vulnerable country to major digital outages. Regional Mobility: Lebanon listed 13 African countries—including Libya—for visa-on-arrival tourism, with strict proof-of-funds requirements.

Libya Finance: SANAD Credit Rating Agency (SCRA) has become Libya’s first licensed domestic credit rating firm, with its first ratings tranche covering all 27 major banks—aimed at cutting the “frontier premium” lenders charge when local risk assessment is missing. Oil & Energy: AGOCO and Libya’s NOC discussed next steps with Chevron to boost oil-field production and operational efficiency, as Libya pushes to modernize output. Payments & Trade Infrastructure: Libya is connecting banks to China’s CIPS payments system to reduce dollar dependence, signaling a push toward alternative rails for cross-border settlement. Security & Compliance: The British Embassy in Tripoli hosted counterterrorism financing training for Libyan officials from the Attorney General Office, Criminal Investigation Department, and Financial Information Unit. Regional Business Links: Qatar chaired AIDSMO’s 29th session in Tripoli, launching an Arab Industrial Indicators Platform and focusing on digital transformation for industry, standardization, and mining. Transport & Connectivity: flydubai launched its daily non-stop service to Aleppo, adding a new route that also boosts business travel between the UAE and Syria, with Libya noted among flydubai’s recent network expansions. Oil Market Watch: Oil prices edged down on reports of US-Iran ceasefire talks, but shipping risk remains a key driver for the region’s energy costs.

Libya Oil & Power: AGOCO and Libya’s NOC discussed next steps with Chevron to boost oil-field output and operational efficiency. Energy Supply: Brega Petroleum Marketing increased diesel allocations for West Tripoli’s power plant to 120 million liters for July, with shipments arriving via Zawiya and Tobruk to keep the grid stable. Oil Sector Watch: Libya’s new oil discovery is reported to add an estimated 195 million barrels to reserves, while other coverage points to rising production momentum. Governance & Politics: A new National Vision Coalition was launched in Tripoli to broaden participation and break Libya’s political deadlock, calling for transparent international support. Security & Compliance: The British Embassy hosted counterterrorism financing training for Libyan Attorney General Office and financial investigators. Industry & Standards: Qatar chaired AIDSMO’s 29th session in Tripoli, launching an Arab Industrial Indicators Platform and pushing digital transformation in industry, standardization and mining. Corruption Probe: Libya’s AG says officials were arrested over alleged tuna quota manipulation that empowered a single company and distorted ICCAT-related data. Regional Crime & Trade Risks: Libya-linked migrant and smuggling stories continue to surface, including reports of repatriation efforts and alleged trafficking routes. International Justice Pressure: Coverage highlights the ICC facing its gravest crisis in 24 years amid US sanctions and political pressure—an issue with direct relevance to Libya-linked accountability efforts.

Libya’s Oil Sector: The National Oil Corporation approved the commercial viability of OMV’s “Al-Isar” discovery, estimating about 195 million recoverable barrels and targeting roughly 5,000 bpd, with development led by Zueitina Oil Operations. Power & Fuel Supply: Brega Petroleum Marketing increased diesel allocations for West Tripoli’s power plant to 120 million liters for July, after receiving tanker shipments supporting grid stability. Anti-Corruption & Fisheries: Libya’s Attorney General says five officials were arrested over alleged manipulation of bluefin tuna quota allocations (2018–2025), including claims that one company was empowered to monopolize access. Security & Governance: Interior Minister Emad Al-Trabelsi announced advanced inspection systems at ports, airports and border crossings, plus tighter controls on fuel smuggling and food safety. Digital Infrastructure: LPTIC held talks with Nokia on expanding 5G cooperation and modernizing telecom networks. Regional Business Diplomacy: Qatar chaired AIDSMO’s 29th assembly in Tripoli, pushing digital transformation in industry, standardization and mining. US-Libya Finance Link: Libya’s banks are moving to connect to China’s CIPS payment system to reduce dollar dependence. Terrorism (Not Libya): A Nigerian federal court sentenced two Ansaru commanders to life imprisonment after guilty pleas on terrorism-related charges.

Libya Oil & Finance: Libya’s Central Bank chief Naji Mohammed Issa agreed with China’s central bank to connect Libyan commercial banks to CIPS, aiming to speed yuan payments and cut dollar dependence. Anti-Corruption: Five Libyan officials were arrested over alleged manipulation of the bluefin tuna quota allocation system from 2018–2025, including claims a single company was empowered to monopolize access. Oil Sector Update: NOC approved the commercial viability of OMV’s “Al-Isar” discovery, estimating about 195 million recoverable barrels and targeting ~5,000 bpd, with Zueitina Oil Operations as operator. Security & Trade Controls: The Interior Minister announced advanced inspection systems for ports, airports and border crossings with a US inspection-tech partner, plus tighter food checks and action against diesel smuggling. Telecom Modernization: LPTIC held talks with Nokia to expand 5G cooperation and modernize Libya’s telecom infrastructure. Sports & Economy: Libya’s Football Federation submitted bids to host AFCON in 2028 or 2032, banking on stadium capacity and government guarantees. Regional Watch: Turkey is reportedly deepening military coordination with eastern Libya’s Haftar-linked command, raising questions for Egypt’s security calculus.

Central Banking & Payments: Libya’s Central Bank chief Naji Mohammed Issa agreed in Beijing to connect Libyan commercial banks to China’s CIPS yuan payment system, aiming to cut dollar dependence and start with direct transfers for small traders. Oil & Trade Flows: Libya stayed Italy’s top crude supplier in early 2026 (26.8% of imports in Jan–Apr), while US data showed no Iraqi crude imports to the US for a third straight week; Libya supplied about 78,000 bpd to the US in the latest figures. New Oil Upside: NOC confirmed the commercial viability of OMV’s “Al-Eisaar” discovery at concession 103, estimating reserves at ~195 million barrels and output potential around 5,000 bpd. Telecom Modernisation: LPTIC held talks with Nokia to strengthen 5G cooperation and modernise Libya’s telecoms infrastructure. Sports & Investment Hopes: Libya’s Football Federation submitted bids to host AFCON in 2028 or 2032, pitching modern stadium capacity and seeking government guarantees. Migration & Human Cost: Reports highlight ongoing migrant abuse and trafficking networks, including a case of alleged torture-linked kidnappings tied to ransom demands. Business Climate & Connectivity: Libya also moved to link banks to China’s payment rails, reinforcing a broader push to diversify trade and finance channels.

Libya–China Payments: Libya’s Central Bank says it will connect Libyan commercial banks to China’s CIPS system, aiming to speed yuan-based transfers and reduce dollar dependence. Oil & Investment: The National Oil Corporation announced the “Al-Eisaar” discovery (about 195M barrels) with expected output of 5,000 bpd, while Libya also remains Italy’s top crude supplier in early 2026. Central Bank & Stability: Commentary highlights the Central Bank’s push for institutional independence and better coordination with fiscal policy as a route to economic stability. Sports & Tourism Potential: Libya’s Football Federation submitted a bid to host AFCON in 2028 or 2032, banking on stadium capacity and government guarantees. Security & Business Climate: Reports from Zawiya point to ongoing militia violence that threatens stability and local commerce. Migration & Human Trade: A new report again spotlights Libya’s migrant cages and trafficking networks, underscoring the economic machinery behind abuse.

Libya Oil & Gas: The National Oil Corporation says OMV’s “Al-Eisaar” discovery in concession 103 is commercially viable, estimating reserves at about 195 million barrels and potential output near 5,000 bpd, with development led by Zueitina Oil Operations and faster ramp-up due to nearby facilities. Libya Economy & Finance: A new push for stability is highlighted by coverage of the Central Bank’s push for institutional independence, unified public spending, transparency, fiscal sustainability and monetary stability—framing economic stability as a national project, not just monetary policy. Energy Infrastructure: Libya’s Sirte Steam Power Plant moves closer to converting to natural gas, signaling continued efforts to modernize power generation. Governance & Politics: Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah reiterated that legitimacy for any political path comes from Libyans’ will, calling for broad participation including businesspeople and civil society. Business Climate: Libya banks are set to join China’s CIPS payments network, aiming to strengthen cross-border payment options for trade and investment. Human Rights & Rule of Law: The ICC confirms charges against Libyan militia commander Khaled Mohamed Ali El Hishri (“Angel of Death”) for alleged crimes at Mitiga prison, moving the case toward trial. Regional Trade Link: Libya remains Italy’s top crude supplier in early 2026, holding 26.8% of Italy’s imports in Jan–Apr. Migration & Smuggling: A report renews attention on “systematic” abuse in Libya’s migrant cages and the continuing business of trafficking, with UN and IOM findings describing exploitation models.