AGP Executive Report

Migration & Public Order: Hundreds of Libyans blocked the UNHCR office in Tripoli, demanding the departure and closure of the agency over claims of “settlement” of undocumented migrants, amid wider anger that migrants are worsening social and economic pressures in a post-2011 transit economy. Trade Policy Shock: The U.S. proposed new Section 301 tariffs tied to forced-labour compliance, naming Libya among 60 economies; if approved, Libya could face an extra 12.5% duty (on top of a 10% baseline), raising costs and adding uncertainty for export competitiveness. Regional Business Ties: South Korea asked Libya to simplify investment procedures, especially for oil and refining, and said its Tripoli embassy will fully reopen. Energy & Industry: Saipem installed a gas extraction module at the El Bouri offshore field to cut flaring and lift output; AGOCO also held talks with Chevron on exploration and reservoir efficiency. Cross-Border Commerce: Libya and Tunisia began implementing their free trade agreement, including electronic certificates of origin and reactivating joint customs crossings to ease truck movement and curb smuggling. Construction & Materials: Gebr Pfeiffer is set to introduce its MVR mill technology in Libya for cement raw material grinding, supporting local capacity expansion.

South Korea–Libya Investment Push: Seoul asked Tripoli to simplify procedures for Korean firms, especially in oil and refining, as the South Korean embassy in Tripoli prepares to fully reopen. Offshore Gas Output Boost: Italy’s Saipem installed a gas extraction module at the El Bouri field, aiming to cut flaring and lift production to about 2 million cubic meters per day. Libya–Tunisia Trade Facilitation: The two countries began implementing free trade agreement steps, including electronic certificates of origin and reactivating joint customs crossings to speed border trade and curb smuggling. US Forced-Labour Tariffs Hit Libya: The US proposed 12.5% additional tariffs on imports from Libya and seven other African countries over alleged weak enforcement against forced-labour goods, with a public comment process underway. Migration Sovereignty Row: Libya’s foreign ministry rejected any external push to resettle migrants inside the country, reiterating it will only support voluntary returns and humanitarian assistance. IOM Returns Nigerians: IOM repatriated 180–182 Nigerian migrants from Libya to Lagos, including women, children, and unaccompanied minors, with reintegration support. Fuel Crisis Local Response: Jalu municipality moved to stabilize fuel supplies after shortages, coordinating with oil and distribution officials to restart deliveries. Oman–Libya Energy MoU: OQ Exploration and Production signed an MoU with Libya’s investment authority to explore joint oil and gas investment opportunities.

US-Trade Pressure on Libya: The U.S. Trade Representative has proposed Section 301 duties tied to forced-labour enforcement, naming Libya among 60 economies flagged for failing to effectively ban forced-labour imports—potentially adding 12.5% to many goods entering the U.S. Energy & Investment: Oman’s OQ Group signed an MoU with Libya’s Libyan Investment Authority to explore oil, gas and clean-energy investment partnerships, with Libya’s PM attending. Offshore Gas Progress: Saipem says it completed lifting and installation of a gas recovery module for the Bouri Gas Utilization Project offshore Libya, moving the project to further integration and commissioning steps. Fuel Crisis Crackdown: Libya’s Interior Minister announced closure of 500+ fuel stations over smuggling violations, while Jalu municipality said fuel deliveries are set to resume to ease local shortages. Migration & Returns: IOM, with the EU and Nigeria, repatriated 180 Nigerian migrants from Libya to Lagos, including unaccompanied children, under assisted voluntary return and reintegration. UN Warning on Arms Diversion: The UN said weapons looted after Libya’s 2011 conflict have surfaced in Nigeria and other Sahel states, fueling extremist violence.

Fuel & Security Crackdown: Interior Minister Imad Al-Trabelsi ordered the closure of 500+ fuel stations tied to smuggling violations, while the Southern Liberation Operations Room accused Haftar-affiliated groups of running fuel tankers through Chad into Sudan—at a time when queues and shortages are hitting southern areas. Local Supply Response: Jalu Municipality said fuel deliveries are set to restart after meetings with Libya Oil and distribution officials to tackle bottlenecks and stabilize local reserves. Central Bank FX Support: A Central Bank of Libya source told Libya Herald that a $3.5bn foreign-currency plan is being rolled out for letters of credit, transfers, and personal use, with banks receiving dollar allocations. Energy Investment Deal: Libya’s Investment Authority and Oman’s OQ Group signed an MoU to explore joint oil, gas and clean-energy investments. Digital Push: Libya launched its National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2026–2030 and adopted an ethics charter, alongside the 6th National Information Technology Day in Tripoli. Migration & Humanitarian Returns: IOM, with EU support, evacuated 180–182 Nigerian migrants from Benghazi under the AVRR programme, including women, children, and unaccompanied minors. Politics & Elections: Libya Karama Party’s Youssef Al-Farsi said U.S. outreach is aimed at reviving the political process and preparing for 4+4 Joint Committee talks on electoral laws. Trade Pressure Abroad: The U.S. USTR advanced Section 301 forced-labor findings, proposing additional tariffs on India—an external trade risk for global supply chains.

Central Bank of Libya FX Plan: A CBL source says a $3.5bn programme is being rolled out to sell foreign currency to commercial banks, split into $1.5bn for Letters of Credit, $1bn for transfers, and $1bn for personal use—aimed at easing market demand and stabilising economic activity. Fuel Crisis Watch: NOC Chairman Masoud Suleiman says fuel demand surged during Eid al-Adha from the usual 6.5m litres/day to 9–9.5m litres/day, while the Administrative Control Authority and NOC plan tighter distribution controls to curb smuggling and fix supply allocation. Oil Revenue Boost: NOC reports its highest monthly revenue in 10 years—nearly $4bn in May—along with record tanker deliveries, even as some western cities still see shortages. Energy Dealmaking: OQ Exploration and Production signed an MoU with Libya’s Investment Authority to expand joint oil and gas exploration and production investment. Oman–Libya Energy Ties: Libya and Oman also pushed broader energy and investment cooperation, including renewable energy and knowledge transfer. Korea Eyes Libya Upswing: South Korea urged Libya to welcome more Korean firms, especially in oil refining and construction, and flagged a full reopening of its embassy. Digital Push: Libya launched its National AI Strategy 2026–2030 and an AI ethics charter, setting targets for AI use across government and new AI startups. Migration Policy: Libya’s foreign ministry reiterated a hard line against settling irregular migrants, warning against rumours and urging citizens to verify social media claims.

OQ & LIA Energy Deal: OQ Exploration and Production signed an MoU with Libya’s Libyan Investment Authority to explore joint oil and gas investment opportunities, aiming to boost reserves, production and returns. Fuel Supply Pressure: Libya’s Administrative Control Authority and NOC discussed fuel import financing and distribution bottlenecks, with monthly fuel costs put at about $1.1bn and calls for tighter controls against smuggling. AI Push: Libya launched its National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2026-2030 and adopted an AI ethics charter, targeting wider AI use across government and support for startups. Oil Revenue Boost: NOC reported its highest monthly revenue in 10 years (nearly $4bn in May) and contracted 17 gasoline tankers, though some western cities still face shortages. Migration Red Line: The House of Representatives warned against any plans that could be used to settle foreigners or change Libya’s demographics, reiterating rejection of irregular migrant settlement. Housing Financing: Libya’s housing authorities signed an MoU to finance and build 15,000 units from 2026-2030, starting with 269 units in an initial phase. Digital Economy Events: National Information Technology Day in Tripoli highlighted plans like “My Country” for integrated digital government services. Libya in Africa–Korea Talks: Libya attended senior Africa–Korea meetings in Seoul, pushing cooperation in infrastructure, digital development, food security, health, energy and critical minerals. Regional Energy Context: Analysis links Hormuz and sea chokepoints to renewed competition, with implications for Libya’s oil appeal.

Libya’s Power Grid Work: GECOL says construction is continuing on the West Tripoli–Al-Taba 400 kV transmission line, including concrete foundations for two towers in Sabia, to move power from plants into the grid. Telecom Recovery After Floods: Libya Telecom Holding Company reports gradual restoration of Al-Madar Al-Jadid and Libyana services in Ghat and Tahala after heavy rain damaged a fibre-optic cable, with 11 of 12 sites back online via backup VSAT while repairs continue. Oil Market Signal: A Gulf Business Outlook report links the Strait of Hormuz crisis to renewed global interest in Libyan oil, with major companies returning and both eastern and western authorities pushing to maximize energy revenues. Regional Energy Cooperation: Turkey is moving ahead with plans for a two-way gas pipeline to occupied areas, while separate analysis highlights how Turkey is positioning itself as a key regional power after the Iran conflict. Libya Politics & Institutions: Saddam Haftar says he discussed unifying institutions and reconciliation with a U.S. adviser, with Washington backing state-institution strengthening and broader participation. Migration Pressure: Libyan social media anger is rising over illegal migration and the scale of migrants inside the country, with calls for UN-linked organizations to focus on conditions in migrants’ home states instead of resettlement in Libya.

Power & Infrastructure: GECOL says work continues on the West Tripoli–Al-Taba 400 kV transmission line, including concrete foundations for two towers in Sabia, to strengthen Libya’s grid. Grid Stability: A major technical fault in Benghazi’s 220 kV circuit briefly cut eastern supply and triggered protective trips in the west; teams are restarting units and restoring the network in phases. Telecom Recovery: After southwest floods, Libyan Telecom Holding reports gradual restoration for Al-Madar Al-Jadid and Libyana in Ghat and Tahala, with most sites back online via backup VSAT while repairs continue. Oil Market Signal: With the Hormuz Strait crisis disrupting global flows, an economic report says major oil companies are returning to Libya, attracted by short routes and high-quality crude, despite ongoing internal divisions. Water Stress: Libya’s renewable water share is dangerously low (about 120 m³ per person per year), with groundwater overuse, inefficient irrigation, and losses in city networks worsening the outlook. Migration Pressure: Libyan social media shows rising anger over illegal migration and claims that migrant numbers are far higher than official figures, while authorities face calls to address root causes. UN Recognition: UN Secretary-General Guterres will posthumously award the Dag Hammarskjöld Medal to six Bangladeshi peacekeepers killed in an Abyei drone strike on June 5.

Telecom Recovery in Southwest Libya: Libyan Telecom Holding says services from Al-Madar Al-Jadid and Libyana are gradually returning in Ghat and Tahala after flood damage, with 11 of 12 affected stations back online (about 91.7%) and most sites running on backup VSAT while repairs continue. Eastern Grid Disruption: GECOL reports a major fault on the 220 kV North Benghazi New–North Benghazi Old circuit triggered a temporary power cut across eastern Libya, tripping units and forcing phased restart efforts. Libya–Egypt Trade: Egypt’s CAPMAS data for Africa Day shows Libya remained the top African importer of Egyptian goods in 2025 at $1.5bn, while Egypt–AU trade edged to about $9.6bn. Water Stress Warning: A Libya water security official warns per-capita renewable water is only about 120 m³/year, with heavy groundwater dependence, inefficient irrigation, and losses in city networks worsening the outlook. Migration Pressure in Benghazi: Libyan News Agency highlights rising public anger over illegal migration, with activists disputing official migrant figures and calling for UN focus on conditions in origin countries. Business & Finance Tech Glitch: Jumhouria Bank apologised for a card and POS outage, saying it was a technical issue beyond its control.

Water Security: Libya’s water crisis is worsening fast, with officials warning per-capita renewable water is only about 120 cubic meters a year—far below the 500 threshold—driven by heavy groundwater dependence, unregulated well drilling, inefficient irrigation (85% of water use), and major losses in city networks. UN Peacekeeping: UN chief António Guterres will honour six Bangladeshi peacekeepers (killed in a 2025 drone strike in Abyei) with the Dag Hammarskjöld Medal on June 5, highlighting Bangladesh’s large role in UN missions including Libya. Trade Watch: Libya is reported as Egypt’s biggest African export destination in 2025, taking about $1.5bn in imports, as Egypt pushes deeper intra-Africa trade ties. Hajj Logistics: Libya’s Hajj authority says problems moving pilgrims in Mina were linked to uncoordinated arrivals and visa issues, and it responded by arranging buses to reorganize affected pilgrims. Regional Migration: Somalia police arrested youths linked to smuggling networks aiming to reach Kenya and then Libya, as authorities warn of abuse and extortion along irregular routes.

Libya-Egypt Trade: Libya stayed Egypt’s biggest African export buyer in 2025, importing about $1.5bn of Egyptian goods, while Algeria ($1.2bn), Morocco ($1.1bn) and Sudan (~$957m) followed—highlighting deeper North Africa trade links. Energy & Industry in Libya: Saipem installed a major module on the Bouri offshore platform as part of Mellitah’s Bouri Gas Utilisation push, targeting unused gas resources and adding new pipeline connections. Hajj Operations: Libya’s Hajj and Umrah authority said Mina overcrowding and confusion were driven by pilgrims arriving without group supervisors and by people using visas issued elsewhere; buses were used to reorganize affected pilgrims. Business & Finance Signals: A POS outage apology from Jumhouria Bank and a separate report on Libya’s e-payment system collapse point to ongoing pressure on payment infrastructure reliability. Regional Migration Pressure: Somali police arrested youths linked to smuggling networks planning to enter Kenya en route toward Libya, underlining continued irregular migration risks. Tech & Skills (Regional): Tunisia’s generative AI adoption rose to 13.5% of its workforce, with Libya and Gabon tied at 15%—a reminder of the wider digital skills race across North Africa. Diplomacy & Environment: Libya discussed Belarus know-how on nature reserve protection and environmental monitoring, including falcon breeding cooperation.

EU Migration Deal: A leaked EU “technical arrangement” shows Operation Irini is expanding cooperation with Libya’s eastern law-enforcement and search-and-rescue bodies, including training and support for a Benghazi regional coordination centre—aimed at boosting interception, pullbacks and detentions. Energy & Industry: Saipem installed a major Bouri offshore Libya gas module for Mellitah’s Bouri Gas Utilisation project, targeting 120 million cubic feet per day and new pipeline links between platforms. Business & Finance Ops: Jumhouria Bank apologized for a card and POS outage, saying it was a technical glitch; Libya also saw continued policy moves on foreign company operations and a new specialized oncology consultative meeting with AstraZeneca. Oil & Gas Investment Climate: Libya’s push to learn from Belarus on nature reserve protection and environmental monitoring highlights growing attention to sustainability and monitoring systems. People & Logistics: Libya’s Hajj authority said Mina overcrowding issues for Libyan pilgrims were driven by uncoordinated arrivals and missing group supervisors, then addressed via bus transfers with authorities. Regional Risk Watch: Human rights groups urged action over detention of Sierra Leonean migrants in Libya, while reports also flagged broader cross-border smuggling pressures.

EU Migration Deal: A leaked “technical arrangement” shows the EU is expanding migration control with Libya’s eastern forces, including training and support for a Benghazi-based regional coordination centre—aimed at intercepting, pulling back and detaining people trying to reach Europe. Energy & Industry: Mellitah installed a 5,200-ton Bouri gas module after Saipem’s heavy-lift work, supporting Bouri Gas Utilisation and pipeline links tied to “zero flaring” goals. Reconstruction Watch: Belqasim Haftar says the Libya Development and Reconstruction Fund is delivering projects in Benghazi, Derna and Bayda to “make up for lost years,” with oil-linked eastern control shaping priorities. Finance & Business Climate: Libya’s economy ministry reiterated plans to build a more disciplined and transparent business environment, while reports also flag ongoing pressure on Libyans’ finances during Eid al-Adha. Human Rights: The HRA urges Libya to release detained Sierra Leonean migrants and dismantle trafficking networks, citing torture, forced labour and sexual violence. Regional Diplomacy: Menfi received Eid greetings from Chad’s president, alongside UN and embassy messages noting economic strain.

EU-Libya Migration Deal: A leaked “technical arrangement” shows the EU’s Operation Irini is expanding cooperation with Libya’s eastern law-enforcement and search-and-rescue bodies, including training and a Benghazi-based regional coordination centre—aimed at boosting interception, pullbacks and detentions of people trying to reach Europe. Human Rights & Detention: Libya’s Human Rights Association urges the release of Sierra Leonean nationals held in arbitrary detention, citing trafficking networks and allegations of abduction, torture, sexual violence and forced labour. Energy & Markets: With the Middle East energy shock deepening, officials at the G7 highlight methane cuts as a fast, relatively low-cost way to free up gas supply and ease global market pressure. Reconstruction in the East: Belqasim Haftar says the Libya Development and Reconstruction Fund is delivering projects across Benghazi, Derna and Bayda to “make up for lost years,” alongside claims of improved rebuilding since 2024. Payments Disruption: Jumhouria Bank apologised for a card and POS outage, saying it was a technical glitch beyond its control. UN Political Deadlock: A rights-focused piece warns Libya’s indigenous communities are losing confidence in UN-led election efforts, threatening a boycott under the current framework.

Libya’s e-payments hiccup: The Central Bank of Libya apologized after a POS/card outage hit banks, saying about two million purchase transactions across 67,000 points of sale created “significant pressure” on the system; it says services are back, but some card payments still failed at certain banks. Currency & banking push: The CBL also highlighted efforts to distribute local and foreign currency to citizens, with May deposits into accounts around 20 billion dinars, as Libya’s financial system continues trying to stabilize the dinar. Security in Zawia: UNSMIL warned of rising armed-group mobilization and more assassinations around Zawia, urging restraint and independent investigations as militia competition over territory and state resources keeps undermining stability. Reconstruction in the east: Belqasim Haftar, head of the Libya Development and Reconstruction Fund, told AFP that projects in Benghazi, Derna and Bayda are meant to “make up for lost years,” with the fund expanding beyond Derna after a roughly $2 billion initial budget. Human rights pressure: The Human Rights Association urged Libyan authorities to release Sierra Leonean migrants held in arbitrary detention and dismantle trafficking networks, citing accounts of abduction, torture and forced labour. Structured dialogue & Eid message: UN envoy Hanna Tetteh said Eid al-Adha comes as economic pressures and political stalemate weigh on Libyans, calling for good-faith handling of upcoming structured dialogue outcomes and action on arbitrary detention and missing persons.

Libya’s Payments Under Strain: The Central Bank of Libya apologized after a sudden POS and card-services outage hit banks, saying the disruption followed record e-payment pressure from about two million transactions across 67,000 points of sale; Jumhouria Bank also apologized, blaming a technical glitch, while the CBL says services are restored. Security Watch in Zawia: UNSMIL warned of rising armed-group mobilization and assassinations around Zawia, urging restraint and calling for investigations and accountability to protect civilians ahead of Eid al-Adha. Eid al-Adha Economic Pressure: UN envoy Hanna Tetteh told Libyans the political stalemate and institutional division are worsening daily living conditions, while also urging action on arbitrary detention and missing persons. Reconstruction Narrative: Belgacem Haftar, son of eastern Libya’s Khalifa Haftar, promoted reconstruction progress in Benghazi, Derna and Bayda, framing it as a bid to make up for “lost years” after Gaddafi. Oil & Money Reality Check: Despite Libya producing at a ten-year high and targeting 1.6m bpd by end-2026, analysis warns higher revenues won’t fix the economy without ending parallel spending and strengthening oversight. Foreign Firms & Trade Moves: Libya approved 13 decisions to expand foreign companies’ operations, while officials also discussed strengthening a more disciplined, transparent business environment. Regional Business Angle: Libya’s tourism numbers were cited in Turkey’s April visitor data, with Libya listed among the Arab source markets for visitors to Türkiye. Libya Appeal in Paris: Sarkozy’s Libya-related appeal enters its final stretch, with defence pleadings due and judgment expected later this year.